Where current inflationary pressures appear to be tied to excessive Monetary stimulus out of the Fed, not due to an overheating economy, still higher interest rates, now, would do little to contain inflation, while at the same time higher interest rates would continue to impair economic activity. Headline 1q2023 GDP annualized Real GDP growth of 1.06% slowed from an unrevised 2.57% in 4q2022, while annualized quarterly inflation picked from 3.92% to 4.01%. Where Commercial Aircraft account for about 32% of total orders, the remaining 68% includes everything else, ranging from automobiles to computers. SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTIONS Economic and financial issues raised here are reviewed more extensively, along with exclusive graphs, and expanded economic, financial market and monetary assessment in subscriber-only Commentaries [monthly going forward], and more frequently on a timely basis in the subscriber-only e-mails of daily changes in the DAILY UPDATE (as the news breaks, see the prior paragraph). The Fed will release the headline April 2023 Money Supply and Monetary Base data at 1:00 p.m. (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). Reporting and growth As repeated here frequently, raising interest rates sharply now only pummels further an already moribund economy, it does little to contain the Feds current monetary inflation problem. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Effectively fully surveyed, Permits were down by a deepening, seasonally adjusted year-to-year drop of 24.8% (-24.8%) in March 2023, against a revised, narrowed 16.5% (-16.5%) [previously a 17.9% (-17.9%) February decline]. HEADLINE ECONOMIC, INFLATION AND MONETARY COVERAGE OF THE LAST MONTH AND OTHER KEY NUMBERS: (1) April 28th (University of Michigan). Headline 1q2023 GDP annualized Real GDP growth of 1.06% slowed from an unrevised 2.57% in 4q2022, while annualized quarterly inflation picked from 3.92% to 4.01%. Separately, the inflation issue is complicated by independently rising gasoline prices, not by any overheating economy! Please note that the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Data and Graphs have been updated for March 2023 on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the above links ribbon). 1461. Near-Term Financial-Market Turmoil Likely Is Far from Over, Given Renewed Deterioration in Economic Conditions, Fourth-Quarter 2020 Annualized Real GDP Growth of 4.0% Was as Expected, Slowing from the Record 33.4% Third-Quarter Pandemic Rebound Where current inflationary pressures appear to be tied to excessive Monetary stimulus out of the Fed, not due to an overheating economy, still higher interest rates, now, would do little to contain inflation, while at the same time higher interest rates would continue to impair economic activity. 1461 will review the underlying GDP, GDI and GNP numbers. The newsletter is published as part of my economic consulting services. (15) April 5th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA) - Following a record 2022 Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit, the January and February 2023 Deficits deepened successively to their worst readings since October 2022, but narrower than in First-Half 2022. Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. New Numbers Show Production Peaked in August 2018 and Entered Protracted Decline, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 1.11% (-1.11%) Below the Pre-Great Recession Peak Tourism Research Australia (TRA) provides statistics, research and analysis to support industry development and marketing activities for the Australian tourism industry. (5) April 25th (Census Bureau). Best Wishes -- John Williams. Despite a small monthly narrowing in the headline March 2023 Unemployment Rate, details remained consistent with an unfolding recession. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. In general terms, methodological shifts in government reporting have depressed reported inflation, moving the concept of the CPI away from being a measure of the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living. Jacinta Price named shadow minister for Indigenous Australians . Thereafter, an Expansion is in place until the next formal Peak, which, the NBER does time. April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%) Money Supply. Yet, with the new Fed Funds Rate at a 15-plus-year high (since July 2007), the earlier FOMC rate hikes already are pummeling the economy, but again, not relieving inflation. Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. That also was in context of a deepening shortfall against its Pre-Pandemic Peak by 1.46% (-1.46%) in 1q2023, versus a 1.22% (-1.22%) shortfall in 4q2022. Where Commercial Aircraft account for about 32% of total orders, the remaining 68% includes everything else, ranging from automobiles to computers. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. GENERAL COVERAGE: Again, on the Inflation front, it is the bloated Money Supply and gasoline price disruptions that are driving or affecting higher inflation, at present, not an overheating economy. Consider that March 2023 Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [Checking Accounts]) gained anew, month-to-month, still holding at 120.5% above, albeit somewhat shy of the peak 122.5% above its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic level. Signals of renewed, faltering activity increasingly have taken on the mantle of a new Recession. Nov 26, 2013 Housing Starts delayed again. The best Honkai: Star Rail Trailblazer build is all about . Part II --REGULAR ALERTS - Weekly Review: ECONOMY, MONEY SUPPLY AND INFLATION ALERTS: Broad Economy continues in downturn, amidst spiking Inflation. THIS WEEKS PENDING DAILY UPDATE COVERAGE OF FOMC AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (Monday, May 1st to Friday, May 5th): (Monday) March 2023 Construction Spending will be covered Tuesday, (Late Wednesday and Thursday) May 2023 FOMC Meeting, (Thursday) March 2023 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit, (Friday) April 2023 Employment and Unemployment. The growth of the shadow economy can set off a destructive cycle. Payroll-Employment Benchmark Revisions Showed a Deepening, Accelerating Decline into an April 2020 Trough, With Renewed Deterioration at Present; Recovery from the Pandemic Shutdown Has Stalled and/or Is Regressing A similar pattern is likely with the Census Bureaus May 1st release of March 2023 nominal Construction Spending, given the activity patterns and related needed inflation-adjustments already in play. Internationally, these activities are more broadly referred to as the shadow economy. Accordingly, comparative year-to-year change in the various March 2021 to March 2022 Money Supply measures against the heavily spiked year-ago activity tended to be depressed, against what otherwise would be the change versus the February 2020 Pre-Recession or Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), effectively the Base Circumstance, before the Pandemic emergency liquidity surge. View Download Excel CSV File Last Updated: April 13th, 2023. Apparently, neither has the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as detailed in an article by BLS economists John Greenlees and . Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart. Inflation. (8) April 18th, (Census Bureau). (4) April 25th (Federal Reserve Board, ShadowStats) -- Headline U.S. March 2023 Money Supply and Monetary Base details showed a continuing creation of, or a shift or flight to liquidity, all of which tends to fuel inflation. First-Quarter 2021 GDP Increasingly Is Set for a Relapsing Quarterly Contraction What are Shadow's specs? Despite numerous, separate indications of the economy stalling or turning down anew (see the earlier GDP, Consumer Sentiment, New Orders for Durable Goods, Industrial Production, and Construction Spending), such broadly is ignored at present. On Top of a Downside Revision, October Building Permits Monthly Change Flattened Out at a Statistically Significant 0.0%, Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting, Some Biographical & Additional Background Information. Annual growth in Payrolls has been slowing since February 2022. 1438, subsequent missives including particularly No. ShadowStats is Williams' attempt to provide an alternative to the official consumer price index (CPI), which he views as a flawed measure of what members of the general public have in mind when. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: "We Are a Long Way from Full Recovery" Your Shadow subscription. Shadow TUAS air vehicle The air vehicle system can be transported by two military wheeled vehicles and can be operated round-the-clock from unprepared sites by the 22-soldier crew. S Y S T E M I C .. R I S K -- FEDERAL RESERVE -(April 25th) Coverage of the March 2023 Money Supply and March 2023 Monetary Base follows in the MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE Section, subsequent to this FOMC Section. If you are a Subscriber and are not receiving, but would like to receive those e-mails, please send a note to [email protected] along with the desired e-mail address. That said, the initial estimate of the theoretical GDP-equivalent 4q2022 Gross Domestic Income (GDI) showed an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.14% (-1.14%), versus an annualized gain of 3.76% in 3q2022, with the more traditional Gross National Product (GNP) gaining at an initial annualized 2.38% in 4q2022 GDP, versus 2.44% in 3q2022. January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions Measured against its Pre-Pandemic level, 4q2022 Real GDP had gained 5.03% [previously 5.06% and 5.11%]. Liquidity-Strapped Consumers Move to Cash, Spiking Traditional Money Supply M1 Those details are posted and graphed on the Alternate Data Tab. For all readers, in general, if you have any questions or otherwise would like to communicate, please e-mail [email protected] or call (707) 763-5786. (18) March 21st to 22nd (FOMC). For the Second Straight Month, Payrolls Declined Year-to-Year by 6.0% (-6.0%) -- A little closer to real-world numbers, initial year-to-year headline March 2023 PPI Construction Inflation eased to 15.6%, from a minimally revised 16.1% (previously 16.2%) in February 2023. That circumstance is reviewed in pending ShadowStats Benchmark Commentary No. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Data downloads and the Inflation Calculator are Subscriber only. That Is Because the Current Collapse Is Pandemic, Not Business-Cycle Driven; Surging Money Growth in a Non-Business-Cycle Collapse Can Trigger Hyperinflation Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. Stock Indices Are At or Near All-Time Highs, Coming into the First Anniversary of the Pre-Pandemic Stock-Market Peaks and Subsequent Crashes Underlying headlines of better-quality U.S. economic numbers, reviewed here in Part II [see Points (1) to (18)], suggest that the United States has been in Recession since First-Quarter 2022, allowing for the political games played with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve depletion, which otherwise also accounted for the headline boost in Second-Half 2022 (Third- and Fourth-Quarter 2022) GDP growth. TRA's research provides businesses with an understanding of the current operating market which is important in making future decisions. Given a moribund, underlying U.S. Economy, raising rates further [as had been heavily jawboned and promised by the Fed Chairman, among other FOMC members, until the most-recent March 2023 FOMC] likely will only exacerbate deteriorating economic conditions, without providing any meaningful inflation relief. ET]. Headline March 2023 CPI-U annual inflation eased to 5.0%, from 6.0% in February, again, due to the relative easing of March 2023 energy prices against the oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago by Russian invasion of the Ukraine. Business-Cycle Conditions Are Collapsing Rapidly, Amidst an Extreme Acceleration in Inflation Our estimates of the tax effect . Beyond Year One, Multi-Year, Crisis-Driven Collapses Need to Be Assessed Against Pre-Crisis Levels, or Stacked Two-Year Change, As Well As Year-to-Year Change While the headline number usually is the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month change, the formal CPI is reported on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis, with annual inflation measured in terms . Here is how the March 2023 Money Supply numbers shaped up. the Plunge Protection Team), or as otherwise being gamed by the Federal Reserve. John Williams, Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary Collapsed Oil Prices Still Suppressed November CPI and PPI Annual Inflation; Yet, Oil Prices Suddenly Are Surging Anew "John" Williams was born in 1949. Moving higher to a 120.5% of its Pre-Pandemic Level, from 119.8% in February and 119.7% in January, March 2023 Basic M1 still is shy of its August 2022 unrevised record level of 123.2%. The SGS-Alternate GDP reflects the inflation-adjusted, or real, year-to-year GDP change, adjusted for distortions in government inflation usage and methodological changes that have resulted in a built-in upside bias to official reporting. Near Record Growth of Currency in Circulation Foreshadows Inflation Risk John Williams, founder of ShadowStats, calculates inflation using the same methodology that the government used to have for calculating the consumer price index (CPI). Consider -- Despite significant Recovery off the Pandemic-Driven Economic Trough of April 2020, the February 2023 Payroll Employment has recovered its February 2020 Pre-Pandemic/ Recession Peak, despite indications of a renewed slowdown. Details and related graphs follow in the next Subscriber e-mail, with extended review and coverage of this Fed-acknowledged regular pattern of initial upside reporting and later downside benchmark revisions to this series, as otherwise pending in Commentary No. That said, expanded Federal Government Deficit Spending continues, currently at the Debt Ceiling. Pandemic-Disrupted U.3 Unemployment Effectively Was 9.0% in November 2020, Not the Headlined 6.7% Data source: Quarterly Informal Economy Survey (QIES) by World Economics, London. Sales declined 22% from one year ago. The renewed monthly decline followed a 13.8% monthly jump in March, the first monthly gain since January 2022. The extent of these effects is uncertain. -- With fundamental U.S. Dollar debasement (inflation) intensifying, irrespective of short-lived games with reduced oil prices, and especially in the context of the Fed and related entities having to balance, bail out or backstop an increasingly troubled Financial System, holding physical Gold and Silver protects the purchasing power of ones assets, irrespective of any near-term Central Bank or other precious metals price machinations to the contrary. With a further quarter-point rate hike expected out of this weeks May 2nd to 3rd FOMC Meeting, following nine consecutive FOMC Meeting rate hikes (0.25% at the last three meetings, 0.50% and 0.75% earlier), the U.S. Central Bank appears intent on using surging interest rates to drive the U.S. economy into the ground. March 2023 activity versus the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Trough for the newly redefined (post-May 2020) headline M1 (now including Savings Deposits, at about 92% of M2) was up by a headline 375.8%, albeit on a nonsensical, not comparable and inconsistent basis, down from 385.4% in February. 1461. (16) April 3rd (Census Bureau) February 2023 Real Construction Spending) - Despite the usual upside revisions to the prior two months of reporting, February 2023 Real Construction Spending showed its 17th straight month of year-to-year decline (down by 9.5% (-9.5%) from February 2022) [see Note (4)], with First-Quarter 2023 activity track for its fourth consecutive quarter-to-quarter decline, and its sixth consecutive quarterly year-to-year decline. Bureau of Labor Statistics Reveals It Cannot Measure the CPI Properly, At Present (11) April 14th (CassInfo.com) The March 2023 Cass Freight Index release noted that The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index fell 1.0% m/m in March as freight markets continue to work through an extended soft patch. That monthly decline of 1.0% (-1.0%) was not seasonally adjusted, with a related unadjusted year-to-year drop of 4.0% (-4.0%). Despite political hype to the contrary, such is helping to accelerate the pace of domestic Inflation. October Industrial Production Continued in L-Shaped Recovery, With Annual Change Flattening Out in Negative Territory COVID-19 vaccines and improved treatment have helped to stabilize a still-disrupted level of economic activity, again well shy of a fundamental, full recovery, yet Pandemic issues, including new variants and vaccination controversies, continue. The revisions did not change quarterly patterns meaningfully, but did show that broader headline activity generally had been some somewhat slower than previously estimated in the last two years [graphs were plotted in the Subscriber-only e-mail of April 14th]. At the same time, the Pandemic-distorted and disrupted year-to-year gain for February 2023 Basic M1 eased to 4.8% from and unrevised 6.2% in February 2023. The linear transformation of CPI tracks the $89 shadowstats series almost perfectly. G E N E R A L .. H E A D L I N E S .. -- Contrary to the happy political and financial media hype, the Pandemic-driven and FOMC-exacerbated U.S. Economic Collapse continues to harden in protracted non-Recovery, amidst mounting evidence of renewed Economic Downturn and recent excessive Inflation, which is about to re-accelerate, and still vulnerable to evolving Russia-Ukraine War risks, seriously conflicted FOMC monetary policies, and extraordinarily dangerous Administration fiscal activity. Nonetheless, systemic Turmoil is still evolving, with both the Federal Reserve and U.S. Government continuing to drive uncontrolled U.S. dollar creation, between unconstrained Money Supply growth (irrespective of Balance Sheet Reduction) and uncontained Deficit Spending, with U.S. Treasury Debt currently pushing to break the $31.4 Trillion Debt Ceiling. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). Please click on a chart or link to view details. The recent string of extreme FOMC rate hikes certainly has not. ALTERNATE DATA TAB [See the Menu Bar above] provides the latest headline numbers and exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates and related Graphs of CPI Inflation [April 13], GDP [April 27], Unemployment [April 7], Money Supply [April 25] and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar [January 10]. Noted frequently here and discussed subsequent to earlier FOMC Meetings (March 22nd was the last), little has changed: The Federal Reserves Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiked the targeted Federal Funds Rate March 22nd by the expected 0.25%, to a 15-year high level of 5.00%, hoping still to induce an imminent Economic Recession, which otherwise already had been in play and deepening for some time, due to earlier rate hikes. To ensure that our results are as robust as possible we use multiple sources to estimate its overall size, including data from the ABS, the Black Economy Taskforce (BETF), and the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC). THIS WEEKS PENDING DAILY UPDATE COVERAGE OF FOMC AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (Monday, May 1st to Friday, May 5th): (Monday) March 2023 Construction Spending will be covered Tuesday, (Late Wednesday and Thursday) May 2023 FOMC Meeting, (Thursday) March 2023 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit, (Friday) April 2023 Employment and Unemployment. 1459, again, with updated and expanded details pending in the Subscriber-only e-mails and No. -- Headline Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP inflation (Implicit Price Deflator [IPD}) came in at a revised third estimate of an annualized pace of 3.92% (previously 3.93% and 3.51%), against an unrevised 4.36% in 3q2022, and up by an unrevised year-to-year 6.41% (initially 6.30%), versus an unrevised 7.15% in Third-Quarter 2022, which remained at a 42-year high, outside of the recent inflation spike. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. The aggregate Monetary Base often moves broadly on a parallel basis with the Money Supply, but it also can vary widely with the Money Supply, tied to the dominance of its movements triggered by Bank Reserves held by Federal Reserve Banks. The annual drop of 22.0% (-22.0%) in March was against a 23.1% (-23.1%) annual decline in February, and was the eighth straight month of annual contraction deeper than minus 20% (go to https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales for details). f2 visa korea requirements 2020,